The last few weeks have been extremely hectic. The forecast for the next few weeks has been downgraded to "very hectic." So I should be able to provide at least the occasional weekday post, but I can't make any promises. (Yes, I just wrote that paragraph with a straight face as i conveyed the false belief that you actually could give two flat-footed dumps whether or not i update this.)
"Hey, it's your money" Picks of the Week
Last week: 4-2
Season 33-34-6
Finally had a decent week for the first time in i can't remember how long. As the season progresses, I'm finding it harder and harder to find games I'm confident picking. So this week, I'm employing the "Blind hog finds an acorn" method and picking an unusually high number of games.
A few thoughts before i get to the picks. After getting burned early with big numbers, i've spent the last couple of weeks avoiding them, so i'm a little uncomfortable with how many big spreads i've got this week. Also, I'm very unsure about my picks for the Missouri, K State and Cal games. After missing every time I've picked a Texas Tech game this season, they're off the board. But I did return Notre Dame, which i think i've also missed every time this season.
And remember, I'm not stupid enough to actually bet these games. You shouldn't be either.
Mizzou +5 Nebraska
Florida -17 Vandy
Bama -15 Miss. State
Navy -12 Duke
Auburn -30.5 Arkansas State
Notre Dame -24.5 UNC
K State +3.5 Colorado
Tulsa -3.5 Houston
Arkansas -2.5 South Carolina
Virginia Tech -2.5 Miami
Cal -17 UCLA
What's so good about a Good Times van, when you're working on a broken man?
Courtney and I are heading up to Knoxville tonight (well, i think Chatanooga, technically) to go to the LSU-Tennessee game tomorrow afternoon.
I'm excited to be able to say that I've been in the stadium up there (Neyland?) but I've heard bad things about the person-to-seat-room ratio. But I guess there are worse things in the world than being squeezed into a stadium to watch an LSU game.
As expected, the Auburn and Florida games have completely killed my optimism for this game. Of course, I still think LSU will win, but I just can't get excited about thinking that LSU will win.
A couple of random thoughts on the game:
Jamarcus Russell is something like 5-6 against quality opponents, but I'm not sure that record is an accurate reflection of his skills at quarterback. But maybe I'm weird, because I can't get over the talk that people want him on the bench (or away from LSU completely). It seems that next to Les Miles, Russell is the least popular person associated with the team, despite being in the top 5 in the country in passer rating...
I'm very interested to see the scheme the LSU defense employs for this game. Last year, The Tigers pressured Ainge, the Tennessee quarterback, and built a 21-0 halftime lead. Then they proceeded to play the same soft zone that got them torched by Arizona State the previous game and blew the lead and lost in overtime. Part of me wants to forgive that mistake because post-Katrina conditioning woes caused the Tigers to dehydrate and cramp. It was all they could do just to have 11 defenders on the field on any given play.
But then history repeated itself this season. LSU spends all season pressuring quarterbacks (or knocking them out of games completely), and then proceeds to call off the dogs against Florida. Last year, LSU swarmed Chris Leak, who completed only 11 of 30 passes as he struggled under pressure. This year, they played back and let him pick the defense apart underneath, completing 17-26 passes. It's baffling, really.
LSU coaches have not exactly impressed me with their ability to make tactical or personnel adjustments this seasons. They still haven't figured out the tailback situation, it took them 40 forevers to find a punt returner and nine (nine! exclamation mark) games into the season you get to read stories about them wanting to get Trindon Holliday more involved in the offense (Oh, really? You mean the guy averaging 18.6 yards a carry should be getting the ball? Get the hell outta here, you crazy sombitch). So forgive me if i'm not exactly confident that they've learned their lesson and will let the dogs loose against Ainge, who, by the way, will be playing hurt.
Shmoke and a pancake
I try to keep predictions sweepingly general to keep myself from looking too stupid, but sometimes even i can't "save me from myself." At the start of the season, i said that West Virginia would sail through its regular season schedule then get killed by a legitimate opponent in a bowl game. Then i watched them beat somebody (Maryland?), and i said that they'd cruise through their schedule then at least put up a fight, if not win, their bowl game.
So they proceed to go get beat by Louisville. Watching the game, i can't help but imagine that West Virginia can relate to how LSU felt after their losses. That was a game I think the 'eers should have won, but gave it away. Not only did they give it away, they gave it away ugly. Although I must say that WV's defense pretty much sucked, so i won't go so far as to say that the 'eers were guaranteed a win if they didn't turn the ball over so darned much, but it at least would have been "tight like a tiger."
Instead, Louisville was victorious and got to "shake [their] booty KC and the Sunshine Band."
*****
turn on the sound and enjoy:
No comments:
Post a Comment